- calendar_today August 12, 2025
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Washington and New Delhi had for years touted one of the most successful post–Cold War strategic partnerships, a relationship built on nearly a quarter-century of diplomatic and defense cooperation. Now, the two sides are facing one of the biggest tests to their ties yet as faith between them crumbles over tariffs, oil, and Washington’s relationships with New Delhi’s regional rivals.
“It’s very serious. We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years — that everybody worked very hard to build, including the president in his first term — have just come completely unraveled. The trust is gone,” said Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
A nadir in the relationship was reached this year after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from India this year over New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian crude oil, in defiance of Washington’s repeated calls for India to do the opposite. The tariff, which started at 25 percent, is set to increase to 50 percent on August 27.
It is not yet clear whether that will be enough to shift India’s energy buying patterns, with signs instead pointing to Delhi continuing down the same path. In recent weeks, Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval traveled to Moscow, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held high-level talks there, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded discussions with officials in New Delhi, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also preparing his first trip to China in more than seven years and Russian President Vladimir Putin expected to host Modi in Moscow before the end of the year.
The trips are not simply symbolic, analysts say. Indian public opinion has also hardened against what they view as Washington’s attempts to impose its will over matters it sees as its sovereign decision-making.
“They’re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy and that they are not going to put up with it,” Feigenbaum said.
India had paused Russian oil imports at the onset of the war, only to resume them weeks later when state-run refiners were lured by 6 to 7 percent discounts on Russian crude. The result: Russia now accounts for 35 percent of India’s crude imports, up from a pre-war 0.2 percent. Moscow, for its part, has also expanded its offerings. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said that Moscow would continue to ship crude, oil products, thermal, and coking coal to India. Russia also sees “potential for the export of Russian LNG,” Manturov added.
Push Factors
The turn to Moscow and Beijing over the last month has not been solely the result of Trump’s tariffs, analysts say, pointing to evidence that New Delhi had been seeking to do so for at least a year.
“There have been indications for almost a year now of India wanting to ease tensions with China, wanting to mend the relationship,” said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “The primary motivating factor for that is economic,” he added, with India seeing the need to strengthen its relationship with China to boost economic growth.
But the Trump administration’s policies, Kugelman said, have only increased New Delhi’s desire to move in that direction, with the president’s tariffs seen as “encouraging India to move even more quickly.”
While New Delhi has at times in recent months engaged in this sort of diplomatic theater for the sake of optics, there are also indications that the shift toward Russia in particular is more than performative.
“There is an element of theater in it, but on the other side, there is substance, too,” Feigenbaum added. “India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia — and those parts are not performative.”
India had already been down this road before the Ukraine war, with Modi’s government diversifying its military hardware from Russia by acquiring U.S., French, and Israeli systems. But it was once the war had started that the country’s energy trade with Russia exploded.
“This is vindication for the Indian government’s long-standing strategic posture that has always been that the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can, because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what,” Kugelman said. At home, Modi has also seized the opportunity to reinforce his image as a defender of the nation’s sovereignty.
In particular, the prime minister has sought to emphasize how he has sought to protect the livelihoods of Indian farmers, small businesses, and young workers, one of his government’s stated top policy priorities that carries domestic political weight. Kugelman noted that India had already given a lot on this front, with New Delhi having acceded to Washington on issues including tariff reductions and the repatriation of foreign workers.
“This is not a position the Indian government would have taken had India not already conceded so much. Because of those concessions, India needs to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend. This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down,” Kugelman added.
Washington has already begun to push back on India’s behavior. Former White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, in an opinion piece in the Financial Times, said New Delhi’s oil purchases were “opportunistic and deeply corrosive.” He added that the tariffs were “the right move,” even if it is “painful to make such a move against a fellow democracy. Tariffs are needed to hit India where it hurts — its access to U.S. markets — even as it seeks to cut off the financial lifeline it has extended to Russia’s war effort.”
